It seems like every time I turn on the news, no matter what channel it is, I hear the same thing. Obama has a lead over Romney, and how could this be? With the economy in shambles and another recession right around the corner; with high unemployment and a workforce that is shrinking with every jobs report; with more people dependent on government handouts and more people on food stamps than ever before, how is Obama winning in the polls?
These news casters, the talking heads and idiotic pundits, inevitably put negative thoughts in the heads of people who ask me the same question – how is Obama winning, and does Romney have a chance? I’m here with good news for the Romney team, good news for Republicans, and bad news for people wandering around with their hands constantly stretched out, waiting for someone to pay their way.
Most polls are very deceptive off the bat. Most people do not realize that these polls almost always ask more Democrats than Republicans who they’ll be voting for. If 13% more Democrats answer a poll, it only makes sense that the poll shows Obama winning. The bright light becomes visible when we realize that even though 13% more Democrats took a poll, the results only show Obama winning by 7%. If we were to even things out, that same poll may show an even result, or perhaps a Romney lead.
The polls can also be deceptive when they show Obama leads among “registered” voters. The voters that count are not registered voters, they are “likely” voters. It doesn’t matter if someone “likes” or “dislikes” Obama’s record on the economy. The only thing that matters is if that person is going to vote for or against Obama in November. Many polls are done on registered voters, not likely voters, but are averaged in as if they have the same meaning. They don’t, so don’t be fooled.
There is a lot of history to show that Obama will lose. If we look back in time, with the exception of FDR, no president has been reelected with an unemployment rate over 8%. The US unemployment rate currently sits at 8.3%, and if we add in people who have just given up looking for work, and people who are underemployed, that rate looks much worse. The REAL unemployment rate is somewhere around 15%.
People like to claim that the Clinton years were a period of great growth, often forgetting the measures set in place 10 years earlier by Ronald Reagan. None the less, the 90s are still seen as a fairly good time, and many people attribute that to Bill Clinton. When Obama begins running his campaign based on Bill Clinton’s record, rather than his own; when Obama commercials feature Bill Clinton instead of Obama; and when Bill Clinton draws more excitement and gives a better speech at the DNC, things are NOT looking good for Obama, and he knows it.
Ronald Reagan was losing in the polls until two weeks before his election against sitting president Jimmy Carter. Reagan ended up winning in a landslide, and did so again in the 1984 elections. Polls today are not used to depict the voice of the people. Rather, they are used to change the voice of the people. No one wants to support a loser, so pollsters who are in Obama’s pocket will continue to tout Obama as a clear winner, hoping that this will cause people to see Romney as a weak candidate and as Obama as the “inevitable” champion.
Polls mean next to nothing today, and they won’t until a couple of weeks before the election. We are still weeks away from the election, haven’t seen a single debate yet, and have only seen the tip of the iceberg as far as campaign advertising goes. The battle is far from over, and the best chapters are yet to come. Do not be discouraged by these negative polls. Keep working on Romney’s behalf; talk to your friends and coworkers; put up a Romney sign in your yard and a Romney sticker on your car or truck; make a campaign contribution. With more people working on our side than in 2008, and fewer people working on his side than 2008, 2012 is sure to be a change. Not the kind of “change” that Obama wants, though.